Ukraine: Don't Fight Back?!

Ah, the past. It's so comforting because it's already happened and we can control it. Economic and political subjects are also welcome.
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Ukraine: Don't Fight Back?!

Post by sharoma »

Two days ago it was announced that the USA has told Ukraine to stop targeting Russian energy infrastructure because this may push up the price of oil on the world market. An increase in fuel cost can easily harm economic activity, business and personal finances. The USA is especially vulnerable to an increase in the cost of energy, as is Canada. This is because food distribution networks rely on road haulage and tens of millions consumers in these countries have made unwise vehicle choices since 2013. With no cheap energy, America’s power is diminished. Therefore, the Ukrainians are still not quite white enough, for they are expected to die to keep America rolling. I personally am willing to accept any energy shock in order to stand up for the moral principle. I also chose wisely in 2020 and operate a vehicle which can average 5.8 litres per 100km in a Canadian mountain winter.

If the UK, USA, EU truly supported Ukraine in a passive way, they would make available unlimited cash, ammunition, expertise, and political support. They would allow and encourage Ukraine to target Russian energy infrastructure. Let’s assume this happens and Ukraine co-ordinates a successful drone attack. Overnight they manage to paralyze Russian oil production for two to six weeks. The world price of oil spikes to $150-250; gasoline prices in America head towards $10/gallon. Most consumption activity would cease immediately. The western economies would have to halt and undertake extreme measures to maintain societal cohesion. This is not what any capitalist wants. And since capitalism is about consuming people, their labour and time, natural resources and anything else it finds, it is natural for the USA to ask Ukraine to “please stop fighting back against your bully!”

Let us assume also that because of the energy crisis, Biden loses the election on an irrational outburst of ill-advised and poorly aimed patriotic populism. Trump has already said he would end the Ukraine war within a matter of days. He recently repeated this to the Hungarian leader and stated all financial and military aid would end immediately. The Biden administration must surely spin their “stop fighting back” message to “if you fight back, you will harm our chances in the election and endanger your own existence”

The USA is failing as the global policeman. The EU is failing to defend its ‘Eastern Front’. Germany remains paralyzed with guilt and won’t take on the military leadership of an economic union it founded and basically owns. France won’t attack without Germany or USA. Poland is still too weak. The UK is in decline and is increasingly economically isolated from Europe. Its military is pivoting towards Asia; my assumption is that American interests are dictating the deployment what is left of British striking power. The USA’s priority is its Pacific Front, not its European one.

As for alternatives to the USA as world policeman, there are none. The Chinese system is not palatable to the west. My proposal is that Germany be granted permission to fully embrace its position as the power of Europe. The German economy is behind only USA, China, and sometimes Japan. It has a much smaller population than the first two. The average German is 20% wealthier than the average Briton. It makes sense for the western world to undertake a radical and speedy reorganization along the following lines:

NATO is unwound. The USA concentrates on defending its Pacific interests and undertakes a union of all western nations outside the EU. Its leadership is badly needed. America remains wealthy and powerful as the rest of the west is dying. With a single currency and military, in extremely close co-operation with the EU, the western democratic systems may survive. The UK is able to reduce spending by withdrawing all continental European military commitments. The EU is allowed to form a single military, keeping to former NATO specifications. Its task will be mostly defence of Europe against Russia. This must include fighting for Ukraine otherwise rallying the west to continue fighting for Poland and the Baltic nations would be difficult.
Robin Sharrock
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